Blog Begs Northup: DON'T RUN

From Elendil's Journal:

I have followed Northup's career for a number of years and have met her several times. She is undoubtedly one of the most impressive people I have ever met. She is a genuinely nice person who people want to be around. Her work ethic is second to none, and she has shown that she can raise n incredible amount of money for her campaigns.

It is a shame that she lost in November to ultra liberal Yarmuth because she truly reflected the average person in the third district as a moderate Republican. Personally, I think she should wait until 2008 and have a rematch with Yarmuth when the national scene will probably be more favorable. What she souldn't do is run for Governor. It would be an unmitigated disaster for the Republican party.

Why? First off, the Fletcher campaign will be able to shred her in the primary because she is a moderate. The fact that she gets C's and D's from the NRA shows that she has a history of being anti-gun. In fact I believe she voted against the concealed carry legislation when she was a state representative. On top of that, her years in Congress show her to be the queen of pork. There is no way she could claim the mantel of fiscal conservatism. And lastly she is from Louisville. Outside of the metro area in Kentucky, Louisville is a four letter word. Being from there will be yet another strike against her.

What does that mean for the primary? It means that Northup is going to have an up hill battle to win the nomination. It will not be as easy as those backing her believe it will be because of the reasons previously stated. That means a bloody and expensive battle where the winner will be damaged and penniless.

Let's say Northup wins the primary. The key to a Republican victory in the fall will be western Kentucky. With Northup's exposure as a gun hating moderate in the primary, the Democrats will have a chance to run to the right of her. Combine her political record with the fact that she is from Louisville and I believe the Dems will recapture the western part of the state. Negating any advantage Northup might have in Jefferson county. Securing a Democratic victory in the fall.

Now if Fletcher wins, whatever Northup's team digs up on Fletcher will only be used against him in the fall campaign. She will also have successfully drained him of any financial advantage he may have had going into the fall election.

Not only that, but a divisive primary will split the party which is still the minority in the state and will weaken whoever the nominee is. And in a state where Republicans are still in the minority, it seems like a difficult way to maintain power.

So please Northup don't run. It will end badly for the party and we will assuredly lose the Governor's mansion.