Friday, March 23, 2007

Con Edge Dismantles Evans\Novak

Some in the conservative blogosphere are touting a report by Robert Novak that says that Kentucky leans Northup. Novak is reputed to be a brilliant political analyst. But read this section of his report: 5. The winner of this Republican primary must take 40 percent to avoid a primary runoff. A third candidate, businessman Bill Harper (R) -- who served as Fletcher's finance chairman in his 2003 election -- will sop up a significant portion of the vote in his native Western Kentucky, the most Republican part of the state.

This could make it difficult to get 40 percent. Western Kentucky is not the most Republican part of the state. It is the least Republican part of the state. This is such a fundamnetally flawed statement, on such a basic political fact, that it renders the rest of the Novak opinion invalid. In my view, Novak has no idea what he is talking about. You have to wonder how much McConnell leaned on Novak to issue the report.

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