Saturday, May 19, 2007

Bill Bryant’s Political Truisms

*Nobody really knows who is going to win. The voting machines are all set on zero… If not we have a big problem!

*Most people won’t vote. Campaigns are pulling hair trying to figure out a turnout model. The Secretary of State predicts about a 15% turnout. That would mean more than 8 out of 10 registered voters will do something else besides vote on Tuesday. (How many will tell their employers that they need time to vote and will end up elsewhere?)

*Most officials want this settled on Tuesday. Counties are ill prepared financially and from a manpower standpoint for a June 26th runoff. County Clerks have sweet dreams at night about both parties having a nominee with more than 40% of the vote…. And they have nightmares about the logistics of a runoff.

*Some voters are STILL undecided and many of them WILL vote. It seems in my nearly 30 years of covering elections that those who decide this late often break toward percieved favorites. BUT any last minute developments could also sway votes.

*Political Stars will rise from Tuesday’s vote. There will be some candidates nominated who are playing on the statewide stage for the first time and some may be around for many years to come.

*Candidates are anxious. I’ve seen even seasoned political candidates begin to wonder if even their spouse or mother will vote for them as the time approaches.

*Some don’t expect to win. Most candidates say they do anyway and will go through the motions to the bitter end. But we’ve found humor in at least one candidate’s response to a request for his picture to be used in our Election Night coverage. He told our producer “Why do you want a picture of me? I’m not going to win.” That’s candor if not confidence.

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