Saturday, May 12, 2007

Kentucky Pachyderm 2: Northup Is Lying

Anne Northup supporters are now claiming that their internal polling, as well as internal polling of other candidates, now shows her with a 4 to 5 point lead on Ernie Fletcher. The rumor was first reported on Kentucky Progress, and later picked up by other blogs.

However, no sourcing for the rumor was given and there are no polling documents available to confirm that, which is in contrast to the recent Fletcher polling showing them with a 22-point lead on Northup. The polling memo was made available to the public and it would be nearly impossible for her to have made up that big of a deficit in such a short time.

Contrary to what Northup's supporters are hoping and wishing for, the view from here is that Fletcher is gaining strength. Northup's negative and misleading ads are backfiring, and the relentless press attacks aren't helping her any either. In short, we don't believe those rumors of her dramatic surge in the polls, and that belief was confirmed for us today by a highly-placed source who has knowledge of such things. That information would seem to correspond with information provided to The Conservative Edge by Fletcher campaign manager Marty Ryall, who said they had not seen any recent polling that showed Fletcher as having less than a double-digit lead.

One of us had a conversation with someone in a position to know, who reported that current Fletcher polling shows the incumbent with a whopping 52 percent of the vote among likely Republican voters. That number is subject to vary slightly considering factors such as turnout, but at this point the Fletcher camp is quietly confident that they will win with more than 40 percent of the vote on May 22.

This source also stated that a year ago, even Fletcher was sanguine about his re-election chances. The attitude in the Capitol was, "We've got to go out there and put smiles on our faces and do our jobs and work hard and hope things get better." Now they feel very good not only about the May primary, but the November general election against whomever the Democrats nominate.

We don't have any access to the polling documents that indicate this, but we have no reason to disbelieve what one of us learned today. Perhaps the Northup supporters hope that if they can spread misinformation about her surging to the lead, they can actually shift some momentum. If they believe what they're sayiing, more power to them. We don't know what Fletcher's vote total will be. It would be great if he tops 50 percent, but we'll be thrilled if he gets 41 percent of the vote and wins the nomination outright.

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